Pre-Election Thoughts

Did you know that Obama can lose:

  • Florida
  • Virginia
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Indiana

and still win with 273 EV by picking up Colorado (7.1% ahead), Iowa (12.4% ahead) and New Mexico (9% ahead), as long as he retains all of the Kerry states.

Of course, this discounts the fact that Obama is ahead in:

  • Virginia – 7.2%
  • Ohio – 6.3%
  • Nevada – 5.9%
  • North Dakota – 3.6%
  • Florida – 2.6%
  • North Carolina – 2.0%
  • Missouri – 1.9%

Even though these numbers are constructed from regression trend line, let’s just toss out any state that’s within an assumed margin of error of 3.5%, and assume it goes to McCain (probably doubtful, but let’s be charitable). That would mean Obama would receive 314 EV. If Obama takes Florida, North Carolina and Missouri, he’d end up with 367 EV. If we have a real blow-out, and the tossups that lean McCain (Indiana @ 0.6%, Georgia @ 1.9%, Montana @ 3.3%) go for Obama, too, then you’d be looking at 396 EV.

Last, but not least, Arizona is a very, very distant possibility for a pickup. Probably, the Obama campaign is hitting it over the last 3 days just to throw the McCain campaign further off balance, but in the remote possibility that Obama actually wins it, you’d see 406EV for Obama.

Here’s how that victory would compare to other electoral vote totals for the winners over the past few races:

  • 1984 – 525 EV (Reagan II)
  • 1980 – 489 EV (Reagan I)
  • 1988 – 426 EV (Bush41 I)
  • 2008 – 406 EV (Obama I)
  • 1996 – 379 EV (Clinton II)
  • 1992 – 370 EV (Clinton I)
  • 2004 – 286 EV (Bush43 II)
  • 2000 – 271 EV (Bush43 I)

(Poll numbers from Pollster.com and past EV numbers from Wikipedia)

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October 31, 2008

It’s really very simple

Just watch this, and compare it to the hate and vitriol coming from the opposing side. Who’s really working towards solutions? We are all Americans, and we all love this country. It’s as simple as that.

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October 22, 2008

Swamped, lately

I’ve been swamped lately:

  • I have one more update to the Slate Poll Tracker ‘08 that’s mostly complete (it just requires some performance testing and enhancement).
  • I am in the final stages of delivering an iPhone app to a startup that shall remain nameless until it shows up in my portfolio.
  • I voted yesterday.
  • I am working on another iPhone application in my copious amounts of free time (cough).
  • I am working on another iPhone application in my copious amounts of free time (double cough).
  • I am at the tail-end of a slightly more than ambitious UI-related project for Virtual Lab (note: real job).
  • I’m doing an executive photo shoot for ExtraHop next weekend. I decided that my sweet lil Canon 430EX wasn’t going to cut it, so I just ordered a Nikon SB-800 to replace it as my main light (see email below).
  • It looks like some combination of the latest versions of Mac OS X and iTunes have conspired to cause some issues in iRooster, so I’m working on an update for that, too.
From: Aaron Brethorst
Date: Sat, Oct 18, 2008 at 7:45 PM
Subject: really spectacular portfolio
To: Helen Tang
http://www.timtadder.com/
btw, i just decided that my sweet lil 430EX speedlite wasn’t going to cut it and ordered Joe McNally’s old standby, the Nikon SB-800. Jiminy F’in Christmas. :)
I need to go pick up another PW II+, stand, and brass monkey at some point so I can do 2 lights. This is the worst gadget affliction I’ve ever had.

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October 18, 2008

Quote of the day

From Josh Marshall:

When this is all over I do not know whether Obama and Biden will allow McCain to meet with his testicles without preconditions.

Just checked the website, and apparently Josh has changed the text:

After the election, in the interests of national reconciliation, I imagine Obama and Biden may allow McCain to make special non-custodial visits to his testicles.

Not quite as funny, but it still makes the point. Ouch. It seems patently obvious to me, at this point, that Obama and Biden are trying to goad McCain into erupting during the third debate. Not very nice, but it wasn’t very nice to insinuate that Obama pals around with terrorists. Karma, motherfucker.

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October 9, 2008

Thought of the day

Does Sean Hannity really believe his own bullshit?

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October 9, 2008

The first and last time I will ever link to a press release

But I feel obliged to, given that it mentions me :)

Incidentally, Jennifer Lee is currently one of my favorite people in the world ;-)

WASHINGTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Slate, the daily online magazine, today announced a partnership with Chimp Software to provide campaign poll tracking data to the “Election ‘08” iPhone application. By incorporating data from Slate’s Election Scorecard into the “Election ‘08” app, users will now have an instant update on which candidate is leading the presidential race, plus a comprehensive breakdown of the numbers in each state, right on an iPhone.

“People crave information during this election, and Slate’s Election Scorecard has been a destination online for an instant look at what’s happening in the polls. We wanted to combine that addictive content with technology that lets users have this data whenever they want, wherever they want, to create a meaningful mobile experience around the elections,” said David Plotz, Slate’s Editor.

Software developer Aaron Brethorst of Chimp Software first created the “Election ‘08” app, which is now called “Slate Poll Tracker ’08” with the addition of Slate campaign data.

This application can be downloaded for $ .99 from Apple’s App Store on iPhone and iPod touch. Users can find the feature in the iPhone App Store.

For more information, visit www.slate.com.

About Slate Magazine (www.slate.com)

Slate is a daily online magazine that offers fresh angles on stories in the news and innovative entertainment coverage, all with its signature wit and irreverence. Pushing the boundaries of convention, Slate publishes provocative commentary on topics such as politics, culture, business and technology. Slate reaches 6.7 million online adults a month according to Nielsen and is published by The Slate Group, an online publishing subsidiary of The Washington Post Company (NYSE: WPO).

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October 3, 2008

Introducing Slate Poll Tracker ‘08

Slate and I have some special news:

If you’re a political junkie like we’re political junkies, you have a problem. You can track the McCain-Obama polls only at your computer. If you go to a ballgame, or a meeting, or your daughter’s wedding, you enter a politics vacuum, cut off from the data you crave.

No longer. Today Slate introduces Poll Tracker ‘08, an application that delivers comprehensive up-to-the-minute data about the presidential election to your iPhone, iPhone 3G, or iPod touch. Using data from Pollster.com, the Poll Tracker ‘08 delivers the latest McCain and Obama polling numbers for every state, graphs historical polling trends, and charts voting patterns in previous elections. Poll Tracker ‘08 allows you to sort states by how contested they are, how fresh their poll data is, or how heavily they lean to McCain or Obama.

You can download Poll Tracker ‘08 on the iPhone App Store. It costs just 99 cents, a small price to pay for satisfying your craving for data anytime, anywhere. Get it on the App Store.

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October 2, 2008

Great Reasons to Fact-Check Interns’ Work, #27

From the RNC website:

Obama Would Implement The Lugar-Obama Legislation To Crack Down On The Smuggling Of Weapons Of Mass Destruction. “[Obama] also will fully implement the Lugar-Obama legislation to help our allies detect and stop the smuggling of weapons of mass destruction throughout the world.” (Obama For America, “Barack Obama: The War We Need To Win,” www.barackobama.com, Accessed 3/3/08)

According To The Congressional Budget Office, Implementing The Lugar-Obama Legislation (S. 2566) Would Cost $2.2 Billion Over Five Years, Which Averages Out To $440 Million Per Year And $1.76 Billion Over Four Years. “CBO estimates that implementing S. 2566 would cost … more than $2.2 billion over the 2007-2011 period, assuming appropriation of the necessary amounts.” (Congressional Budget Office, “S. 2566: Cooperative Proliferation Detection, Interdiction Assistance, And Conventional Threat Reduction Act Of 2006,” www.cbo.gov, 5/31/06)

Um, and this is unacceptable for what reason? I’d love to see Steve Schmidt, or Tucker “I think I just wet myself” Bounds argue against the implementation of this bipartisan legislation that would keep terrorists from nuke smuggling! (in other news, Campbell Brown is totally hot). Seriously, someone from the RNC should go back through this list and scrub out all of the stuff that makes them look particularly stupid.

(props to dkos)

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October 2, 2008