Aaron Brethorst

Round peg in a square hole, rabid generalist.

Pre-Election Thoughts

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Did you know that Obama can lose:

  • Florida
  • Virginia
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Indiana

and still win with 273 EV by picking up Colorado (7.1% ahead), Iowa (12.4% ahead) and New Mexico (9% ahead), as long as he retains all of the Kerry states.

Of course, this discounts the fact that Obama is ahead in:

  • Virginia - 7.2%
  • Ohio - 6.3%
  • Nevada - 5.9%
  • North Dakota - 3.6%
  • Florida - 2.6%
  • North Carolina - 2.0%
  • Missouri - 1.9%

Even though these numbers are constructed from regression trend line, let’s just toss out any state that’s within an assumed margin of error of 3.5%, and assume it goes to McCain (probably doubtful, but let’s be charitable). That would mean Obama would receive 314 EV. If Obama takes Florida, North Carolina and Missouri, he’d end up with 367 EV. If we have a real blow-out, and the tossups that lean McCain (Indiana @ 0.6%, Georgia @ 1.9%, Montana @ 3.3%) go for Obama, too, then you’d be looking at 396 EV.

Last, but not least, Arizona is a very, very distant possibility for a pickup. Probably, the Obama campaign is hitting it over the last 3 days just to throw the McCain campaign further off balance, but in the remote possibility that Obama actually wins it, you’d see 406EV for Obama.

Here’s how that victory would compare to other electoral vote totals for the winners over the past few races:

  • 1984 - 525 EV (Reagan II)
  • 1980 - 489 EV (Reagan I)
  • 1988 - 426 EV (Bush41 I)
  • 2008 - 406 EV (Obama I)
  • 1996 - 379 EV (Clinton II)
  • 1992 - 370 EV (Clinton I)
  • 2004 - 286 EV (Bush43 II)
  • 2000 - 271 EV (Bush43 I)

(Poll numbers from Pollster.com and past EV numbers from Wikipedia)

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